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Modelle ökologischer Modellierung: Instrumente der Bewertung und Optimierung

Kai W. Wirtz
Theorie in der Ökologie 4, 129-140, [2001]

Abstract:

Simulation methods in ecology evolve along an increasing number of different branches. Such a diversity requires generalisations of the modeling process which facilitate model inter-comparison and improvement. Here the framework of ecological metamodels is proposed in order to initiate a broader exchange of concepts in the balcanized field of ecological modeling. Beside their values in defining terminological standards, metamodels supply users as well as developers with effective tools for model evaluation and strategy design. This is demonstrated within two applications. First, a framework for qualitative model evaluation is developed. The metamodel approach succeeds in deriving helpful guidelines from comparing different types of models applied in ecosystem research. During the evaluation a general problem of environmental modeling is encountered, i.e. the simultaneous demand for complexity as well as simplicity. Hence, model optimization is addressed by the second metamodel application from which a conceptually new strategy results. Major ingredients are model analysis and aggregation. It is shown that both stages are closely related and that they have the potential to reduce the subjectivity inherent within the process of model construction.

Keywords: modeling strategy, evaluation, optimization, complexity reduction, model analysis, aggregation